Saturday 4 June 2016

June 4 - Technical analysis and other mumbo jumbo

I'm not a technician by any stretch of the imagination, but I decided to open up some positions based on my technical analysis on some underlyings.  

X - Short put
On May 26, I sold June(17) 14.50 puts on US Steel (X).  IV is fairly high in this underlying which allowed me to credit $0.99 per put with X trading at $14.70.  Not a bad credit for 22 days to expiration (DTE) with the puts slightly out-of-the-money.
The +DI was converging up into the -DI and looks like it will overtake it.  I probably got into this trade a little early and should have waited for confirmation.  However, time is on my side on this trade and I wanted to put this on while IV was still high.  Since the trade, X has moved up about 60 cents while IV has drifted lower.  The puts are now $0.47 and I'll continue to monitor the DIs.  If the DIs continue to oscillate as they did in February or if the +DI continues up, I'll hold on to the position.  If -DI strengthens, I'll have to think about exiting.

GOOGL - Long call spread
In a similar vein, I bought a long July(17) 710/730 call spread in GOOGL for an initial debit of $10.30 on May 23.  It has been a good couple of weeks since (spread is now a little over $15), but the ADX/DI technicals appear to be weakening.  Both strikes are in the money, so theta is now positive so I'll try to be patient to let this trade play out.  But if the DIs reconverge, I'll look to close the position.  

Adjustments
On the other hand, MCD has been struggling and I don't see much upside over the next couple of weeks.  As a result, I rolled down my short some of my MCD June 130 puts to 122.  I have 50 long lots of July 130 puts with short June(17) puts of now 130x15, 125x10 and 122x25.



Other new positions

Long FB diagonal:
  • Bought July(15) 115 call
  • Sold June(17) 118 call
  • $3.28 debit
Long AAPL diagonal:
  • Bought July(15) 95 put
  • Sold June(17) 92.50 put
  • $2.11 debit
Long AAPL calendar:
  • Bought July(15) 97.5 call
  • Sold June(17) 97.5 call
  • $1.16 debit
Long SPY calendar
  • Bought July(15) 210 put
  • Sold June(10) 210 put
  • $2.45 debit

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